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Prediction and thoughts of the Wenchuan large earthquake

Geng Qingguo

Strategic Study of CAE 2009, Volume 11, Issue 6,   Pages 123-128

Abstract:

According to many years of earthquake prediction exploring work basedon analysis of drought -earthquake relations and ordered strong earthquake activities and the methodof strong geomagnetic storm combinations,the paper briefly reviewed the consecutive three year studieswithin the Sichuan Abazhou area, and revealed the main points of the "Urgent advice to enhance strongearthquake short-term/imminent monitoring and analysis prediction contingency work for the Sichuan-Gansu-Qinghai-Shaanxi

Keywords： Wenchuan Large Earthquake prediction     drought-earthquake relations     strong earthquake activities order     strong geomagnetic storm combination method    

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The dawn of successful prediction of major earthquakes

Li Ping and Yang Mei’e

Strategic Study of CAE 2009, Volume 11, Issue 6,   Pages 19-27

Abstract: recent 20 years, however, some seismologists abroad have taken a disappointed and pessimistic view to earthquakeprediction because of several failures.They suggest that the efforts should turn toward other fields, such as identification of building’s earthquake-proofinfluence some Chinese researchers of the seismological community who attempted to give up efforts for earthquakeprediction.

Keywords： Wenchuan Earthquake     strong earthquake prediction     microseism generating fault    

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The scientific faith that earthquake is predictable should be insisted—the successful prediction of threestrong aftershocks of Wenchuan Earthquake

Wang Chengmin

Strategic Study of CAE 2009, Volume 11, Issue 6,   Pages 107-110

Abstract: Earthquake.The specialists in Chinese Earthquake Prediction Consultation Committee started the aftershockprediction research after the earthquake to support emergency rescue and disaster relief with practicalaction.From May 15 to August 15, the committee formally reported prediction results for 3 times andthe three strong aftershocks, i.e.M 6.0 earthquake on May 18 in Jiangyou, M 6.4 earthquake on May 25should think over the fact that the prediction of all three aftershocks was correct without any miss

Keywords： Wenchuan Earthquake     aftershock of Wenchuan Earthquake     earthquake short -impending prediction    

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Earthquakes in the north block of Tibet-Plateau and retrospect of prediction for Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake

Men Kepei

Strategic Study of CAE 2009, Volume 11, Issue 6,   Pages 82-88

Abstract: , we try to explore the practical method for strong earthquake prediction with Chinese characteristics, and conceive strong earthquake with magnitude 7 informational network structure.Based on this, the 2008 Wenchuan M 8.0 great earthquake was predicted and M≥7 strong earthquakes willThe results show that strong earthquake and strong earthquake chain can be predicted.This method has a unique effect on mid-and-long term prediction for strong earthquake.

Keywords： the north block of Tibet Plateau     informational orderly network structure     the great Wenchuan Earthquake     strong earthquake prediction    

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Sub-layer Movement in the Large-scale Stratum

Xu Shaoxie

Strategic Study of CAE 2006, Volume 8, Issue 6,   Pages 14-22

Abstract: Events with strong tremble of sub-layer movement have been analyzed, which were recorded by stationsA certain relationship between events with strong tremble recoded by Golmud Station in November, 2001and earthquake occurred at west of Kunlun Mountain Pass, nearby the station, on 2001 - 11 - 14, hasThat information is very important for earthquake prediction research and geodynamic recognition.

Keywords： sub-layer movement in the large-scale stratum     events with strong tremble     earthquake prediction    

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Statistic and review of China’s earthquake prediction score

Gao Jianguo

Strategic Study of CAE 2009, Volume 11, Issue 6,   Pages 129-131

Abstract:

Earthquake is difficult to forecast, but it doesn't happen withoutsigns or unknown,our country has the case summary for every large earthquake.Statistics clearly showmiddle -term, short -term or imminent earthquakes in the last 40 years.Therefore, success in Chinese earthquakeprediction could not be denied only because of failure in Wenchuan Earthquake prediction.China'searthquake prediction score should be positive,and Wenchuan Earthquake is not a "strange shock&

Keywords： earthquake     earthquake prediction     nearly 30 years’earthquake prediction statistics in china    

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Features of seismic hazard in large dam projects and strong motion monitoring of large dams

Martin WIELAND,

Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering 2010, Volume 4, Issue 1,   Pages 56-64 doi: 10.1007/s11709-010-0005-6

Abstract: The May 12, 2008 Wenchuan earthquake has damaged 1803 dams and reservoirs, and 403 hydropower plantsThe different features of earthquake hazard are presented, i.e., ground shaking, faulting and mass movementsThe earthquake behaviors of the Sefid Rud, Zipingpu and Shapai dams, which, in the past, have experiencedstrong ground shaking from nearby earthquakes, are discussed.Finally, the need for strong motion instrumentation of large dams is discussed.

Keywords： seismic hazard     arch dam     concrete face rockfill dam     strong motion instrumentation     reservoir-triggeredseismicity     Wenchuan earthquake    

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Pondering over the scientific thinking of earthquake prediction from the miss report of Wenchuan Earthquake—re-discussingLi Siguang’s earthquake prediction thought

Zhao Wenjin

Strategic Study of CAE 2009, Volume 11, Issue 6,   Pages 4-15

Abstract:

According to the experience and problems of seismic monitoring and earthquakeprediction for many years in China, it was discussed the earthquake mechanism, preliminary methods forprediction research and the mechanism and miss report of Wenchuan Earthquake, analyzed prediction precursorof short-term and impending earthquake, seismometry application limitation and ground stress transferand track, and put forward 9 suggestions for future earthquake prediction.

Keywords： Wenchuan Earthquake     earthquake prediction     ground stress     Li Siguang    

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Seismic design of high-rise towers for cable-stayed bridges under strong earthquakes

Yan XU, Shide HU

Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering 2011, Volume 5, Issue 4,   Pages 451-457 doi: 10.1007/s11709-011-0127-5

Abstract: first of a series of studies on the seismic design of high-rise towers for cable-stayed bridges under strongreoptimization of damper parameters or reconsideration of other energy dissipation devices will be needed if strong

Keywords： high-rise tower     cable-stayed bridge     strong earthquake     seismic design    

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Review on the prediction before the Wenchuan Earthquake

Guo Zengjian,Guo Anning

Strategic Study of CAE 2009, Volume 11, Issue 6,   Pages 166-168

Abstract: : justify;">According to the index of solar activity we predicted in 2006 that during 2007 ~2008 an earthquakeM >7 will possibly occur in segment between Tianshui and Kangding.Based on the flood-earthquake chainalong the latitude circle of 30°,we predicted in the end of 2007 that an earthquake M6 ~7 will possibly

Keywords： earthquake prediction     valley of solar activity     flood-earthquake chain    

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The feasibility of accurate earthquake prediction by HRT wave and examples of strong earthquakes includingWenchuan Earthquake （M ＝8）

Zhao Yulin and Qian Fuye

Strategic Study of CAE 2009, Volume 11, Issue 6,   Pages 111-122

Abstract:

The method of earthquake short-term and impending prediction by usingnew, quantitative technology of simultaneous determination of the location, magnitude and time of an earthquake.Theearthquake preparation processes and precursor mechanism are considered as a "blackbox" .Using

Keywords： “black box”& HRT wave model     PS-100HRT instrument system     discovery of HRT wave precursor and its regularity     practicality of HRT wave model    

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Technically feasible approach to earthquake prediction

Liu Defu,Kang Chunli

Strategic Study of CAE 2009, Volume 11, Issue 6,   Pages 159-165

Abstract:

Earthquake prediction is an undertaking of public welfare.But earthquakescannot be successfully predicted at present due to technological reasons.Earthquake prediction shouldbe studied earnestly to adapt the demand of society for earthquake prediction at present.In order tostudy the possiblity of predicting the Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake occurred on May 12,2008, based on theearthquake information itsself, this paper has suggesed a kind of numerical modeling method for predicting

Keywords： earthquake     OLR     numerical modeling     predicting    

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Liquefaction prediction using support vector machine model based on cone penetration data

Pijush SAMUI

Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering 2013, Volume 7, Issue 1,   Pages 72-82 doi: 10.1007/s11709-013-0185-y

Abstract: A support vector machine (SVM) model has been developed for the prediction of liquefaction susceptibilityas a classification problem, which is an imperative task in earthquake engineering.This paper examines the potential of SVM model in prediction of liquefaction using actual field conepenetration test (CPT) data from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake.For Chi-Chi earthquake, the model predicts with accuracy of 100%, and in the case of global data, SVM

Keywords： earthquake     cone penetration test     liquefaction     support vector machine (SVM)     prediction    

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The phenomena based on the before Wenchuan Earthquake, the characteristic of large scale and deep layeron dynamic force of earthquake occurrence has been recognized

Xu Shaoxie

Strategic Study of CAE 2009, Volume 11, Issue 6,   Pages 16-18

Abstract: text-align: justify;">The characteristic of large scale and deep layer on dynamic force of Wenchuan EarthquakeThe seismicity before Wenchuan Earthquake of May 12, 2008 has been studied, by using the data from 1977activity enhanced in deep layer, are important phenomena before Wenchuan Earthquake.Such characteristics have already been found in the phenomena before Tangshan Earthquake in 1976.Since the disaster of a great earthquake is very serious, it should be enhanced to collect and study

Keywords： Wenchuan Earthquake     the characteristic of large scale and deep layer on dynamic force of earthquakeoccurrence     earthquake prediction    

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A systems view of the earthquake forecast

Li Shihui

Strategic Study of CAE 2009, Volume 11, Issue 6,   Pages 132-137

Abstract: to use the principle and method of systems sciences to prove that the standpoint of the mainstream earthquakescientists is unscientific and unreasonable, namely, the earthquake can't be forecasted essentiallystandpoint is scientific and reasonable, namely, roughly estimate the range of time and location of the strong

Keywords： earthquake forecast     earthquake prediction     complexity     systems sciences     complement each other of Chinese    

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Title Author Date Type Operation

Prediction and thoughts of the Wenchuan large earthquake

Geng Qingguo

Journal Article

The dawn of successful prediction of major earthquakes

Li Ping and Yang Mei’e

Journal Article

The scientific faith that earthquake is predictable should be insisted—the successful prediction of threestrong aftershocks of Wenchuan Earthquake

Wang Chengmin

Journal Article

Earthquakes in the north block of Tibet-Plateau and retrospect of prediction for Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake

Men Kepei

Journal Article

Sub-layer Movement in the Large-scale Stratum

Xu Shaoxie

Journal Article

Statistic and review of China’s earthquake prediction score

Gao Jianguo

Journal Article

Features of seismic hazard in large dam projects and strong motion monitoring of large dams

Martin WIELAND,

Journal Article

Pondering over the scientific thinking of earthquake prediction from the miss report of Wenchuan Earthquake—re-discussingLi Siguang’s earthquake prediction thought

Zhao Wenjin

Journal Article

Seismic design of high-rise towers for cable-stayed bridges under strong earthquakes

Yan XU, Shide HU

Journal Article

Review on the prediction before the Wenchuan Earthquake

Guo Zengjian,Guo Anning

Journal Article

The feasibility of accurate earthquake prediction by HRT wave and examples of strong earthquakes includingWenchuan Earthquake （M ＝8）

Zhao Yulin and Qian Fuye

Journal Article

Technically feasible approach to earthquake prediction

Liu Defu,Kang Chunli

Journal Article

Liquefaction prediction using support vector machine model based on cone penetration data

Pijush SAMUI

Journal Article

The phenomena based on the before Wenchuan Earthquake, the characteristic of large scale and deep layeron dynamic force of earthquake occurrence has been recognized

Xu Shaoxie

Journal Article

A systems view of the earthquake forecast

Li Shihui

Journal Article